FRANKFORT, Ky. — October’s General Fund receipts rose 10.5 percent or $99.7 million over last year’s total. Revenues for the month were $1,048.2 million compared to $948.4 million collected in October 2020. Receipts have increased 17.6 percent for the first four months of the fiscal year, significantly higher than budgeted estimates and would need to grow 0.7 percent over the final eight months of FY22 to reach the unofficial, preliminary revenue estimate issued by the Consensus Forecasting Group of $13.72 billion. The FY22 General Fund estimate will be revised officially in December.
Road Fund receipts for October totaled $131.8 million, a 0.1 percent increase from October 2020 levels. Year-to-date Road Fund receipts have grown 2.7 percent. Based on year-to-date collections, Road Fund receipts are above the budgeted estimates and would need to grow 3.0 percent to meet the unofficial, preliminary FY 22 revenue estimate issued by the Consensus Forecasting Group of $1.69 billion.
Hicks noted that following the short recession in 2020, growth in General Fund receipts has been historically high. “Since the 4.5 percent quarterly decline in the fourth quarter of FY20, General Fund receipts have posted quarterly growth of at least 5.3 percent in every quarter — with the last two quarters growing at 24.8 percent and 20.0 percent, respectively.
Double-digit quarterly General Fund growth is rare and has not occurred since FY06. October collections continue this recent pattern with a 10.5 percent rate of growth, led by the sales, individual, and major business tax accounts. The sales tax surged ahead 16.3 percent in October and income tax withholding grew by 12.3 percent. These revenue trends, as well as the latest economic outlook, will be considered in December when the Consensus Forecasting Group determines the official revenue estimates that will be used in the preparation of the upcoming 2022-2024 biennial budget.”
Among the major accounts,
- Major business tax receipts rose 17.5 percent. Year-to-date, these receipts have increased 64.4 percent.
- Individual income tax collections rose 12.3 percent on the strength of withholding receipts. Receipts are up 8.0 percent for the first four months of FY22.
- Sales and use tax receipts grew 16.3 percent in October with collections of $420.4 million. Seven of the nine months that the sales tax has ever reached the $400 million mark have occurred in calendar year 2021.
- Property tax collections fell 23.3 percent in October but are up 0.6 percent year-to-date.
- Cigarette tax receipts fell 1.3 percent in October and are down 3.6 percent through the first four months of the fiscal year.
- Coal severance tax receipts rose a brisk 36.7 percent in October with collections of $6.3 million. Year-to-date receipts are up 14.6 percent.
- Lottery revenues grew 3.9 percent in October and have increased 11.1 percent for the year.
Road Fund receipts rose 0.1 percent in October. Declines in vehicle sales compared to last October, and nontax collections, offset a sizeable increase in license and privilege taxes. Year-to-date Road Fund collections have risen 2.7 percent compared to the previous year. Motor fuels taxes rose 0.6 percent in October and are up 3.8 percent for the year. Motor vehicle usage tax collections fell 3.2 percent but have increased 2.1 percent through the first four months of the year. License and privilege revenue rose 20.2 percent in October and are up 1.7 percent for the year. Nontax receipts fell 48.8 percent for the month and are down 8.7 percent for the year.
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