Home » Kentucky population to increase 10.4% by 2040, despite declines in 79 counties

Kentucky population to increase 10.4% by 2040, despite declines in 79 counties

Jefferson County to see biggest increase

LEXINGTON, Ky. (Oct. 26, 2016) — Between 2015 and 2040, the population of Kentucky is projected to increase 10.4 percent—from 4,425,092 to 4,886,381—a gain of 461,289 people, according to a study by the Kentucky State Data Center at the University of Louisville.

Screen Shot 2016-10-26 at 4.26.39 PMOf Kentucky’s 120 counties, 79 counties—66 percent—are projected to exhibit declines in total population between 2015 and 2040. Of the 41 counties projected to exhibit population growth between 2015 and 2040, 20 are within metropolitan statistical areas and 13 are within micropolitan statistical areas. The remaining 8 counties are adjacent to either a metropolitan or micropolitan area.

Jefferson and Fayette counties are projected to remain Kentucky’s most populous counties, with Jefferson County adding 111,836 residents and Fayette County 105,325. Following those two counties is Boone County (63,381), Warren County (60,854) and Scott County (45,325).

The largest population increase by percentage is projected for Scott County, which is expected to see an 86.5 percent increase in population. Next is Oldham County (52.8 percent), Shelby County (51.7), Boone County (49.6) and Warren County (49.5)

The biggest decline is projected for Pike County, with a loss of 13,495. Second is Floyd County (9,494), followed by Harlan County (7,379), Bell County (5,963) and Letcher County (5,578)

The largest population decline by percentage is Fulton County, with a projected loss of 36.9 percent. Next are Leslie County (29.6 percent), Breathitt County (29.6), Knott County (29.5) and Hickman County (28.3).

By 2040, Kenton County is projected to climb from fifth to third most populous county, while Robertson County is projected to remain Kentucky’s smallest county in terms of population.